Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to reassure markets next week the central bank will do whatever it takes to help the economy heal. That should be enough to keep investors moving into stocks that benefit from an economic rebound and push the S&P 500 into the green for 2020.
The stock market, so eager to put the entire blow from the pandemic behind it, is now coming to terms that a “V-shaped” recovery might be too rosy a scenario.
With recent spikes in coronavirus cases and fluctuations in the economic data, the market seems to be stuck in a range amid elevated volatility. Market analysts said investors should expect more turbulence ahead because the economic recovery is most likely to be bumpy.
“The market was priced for a continuation of improvement and I think that’s overstating what’s going to happen,” said Brian Levitt, Invesco’s global market strategist. “We are going to have episodes of cases rising. We are going to have a very slow and uneven improvement in the jobs market.”
After soaring more than 40% from the March lows, the S&P 500 turned sideways in the past two weeks, trading at similar levels to early June. The market, which used to turn a blind eye to disastrous news on the thinking that the economy had already bottomed, has become more vulnerable to negative economic headlines as the data begins to give a read on the shape of the recovery.
Stocks came under pressure earlier this week after data showed weekly jobless claims rose more than expected last week, and the number stayed above 1 million for the 13th consecutive week.
And on the virus front, California, Texas, Florida and Arizona have reported an uptick in new infections and hospitalizations amid the reopening. Apple said Friday that it’s again closing some stores in Florida, North Carolina and Arizona due to the spikes in coronavirus cases, which sparked a sell-off in the market, especially among retail stocks.
“The economy is going to need more help to bounce back in months to come,” said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “For now, volatility and choppy markets remain our base case as an uneven economic recovery likely unfolds.”
‘Rolling Ws’
The rally in those popular reopening trades — airlines, cruise lines and hotels — is seemingly losing steam. Shares of American Airlines and Delta posted their second straight weekly losses. So did Carnival, Norwegian Cruise and MGM Resorts. Those stocks were once the high-beta leaders of the market comeback as investors bet that a successful reopening would take hold.
“Although the stock market was suggesting a V-shaped recovery, the more likely scenario is rolling Ws,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said in a note.
A similar market pattern happened during the financial crisis, pointed out by Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. After stocks rallied nearly 40% from the 2009 bottom, the market was range-bound for about seven weeks so the fundamentals could catch up, Colas noted.
From a technical perspective, Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, is watching if the S&P 500 can break above its recent high of 3,232 or drop below the 3,000 threshold or its 200-day moving average of 3,018 as of Friday.
“Whichever way it breaks...should be an very important development in trying to determine how this critical juncture in the stock market will be resolved,” Maley said in a note.
Fed can’t prevent volatility
While the flattening virus curve played a big role in the market rebound, it’s no denying that the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented stimulus has been a key driver in lifting stocks from the coronavirus slump. The central bank unleashed another weapon in its arsenal this week, saying it will start buying individual corporate bonds.
As comforting as it is to have the Fed’s support, the central bank can only do so much to ease investor fears.
“The Fed can’t prevent the volatility we’re seeing in stocks,” Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, said in a note. “It will likely take years for the economy to fully recover and there remain other uncertainties on the path ahead. As such, investors may continue to struggle with this mismatch between markets and the economy before seeing the case for new highs.”
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reminded investors again this week in his semiannual testimony before Congress that “significant uncertainty remains about the timing and strength of the recovery.”
Many on Wall Street have also warned that extended policy measures including injection of trillions of cheap money would lead to problems down the road such as hyperinflation.
100 days ago today on March 11th, the WHO made it official and declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. Markets were already under a lot of pressure before the WHO declared the pandemic, but the 100 days since will probably go down as some of the craziest 100 days we'll ever experience, not only in the market but in general society as well. More than enough ink and pixels have been spent discussing the societal impact at large, so we'll spare you and just focus on the markets.
While much of the declines were already in the rearview mirror by the time the WHO made its announcement, equities still had a steep decline in the immediate aftermath. The large-cap Russell 1000, for example, fell another 19% to its March 23rd closing low, but after the rebound, the net change since the pandemic was officially declared > has been a gain of 14.3%.
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As impressive as the Russell 1000's gain has been in the face of the global pandemic, many stocks have done a lot better than that. The table below lists the 25 stocks in the index that have seen the biggest gains so far during this pandemic. Topping the list is Wayfair (W) which has rallied more than 350%. If there is one thing Americans must have realized while they were stuck at home under lockdown it was that they needed some new furniture! Behind Wayfair, two other stocks have more than tripled and both were beaten down stocks from the Energy sector that were trading at less than $2 per share on March 11th. A number of familiar names standout including Moderna (MRNA), Twilio (TWLO), DocuSign (DOCU), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Etsy (ETSY), but looking through the list, there's really a diverse group of names ranging from bombed-out stocks from the Energy sector (8 stocks), Consumer names (7 stocks), and the ever-popular software stocks from the Technology sector (6 stocks). It's definitely been a rocky road for the markets over the last 100 days, but for anyone who had these names in their portfolio, they aren't complaining. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for access to our weekly Bespoke Report which includes an update to our Stocks for the COVID economy portfolio that was released on March 11th.
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Equity markets have become a bit wobbly in the last week or so, but breadth, in terms of large-cap industry groups, still remains pretty robust. Relative to their 50-DMAs, all 24 S&P 500 industry groups still have rising 50-DMAs. When you consider the fact that the 50-day window spans the period going back to early April, a period encompassing most of what was one of the strongest 50-day rallies on record, the fact that every industry group has a rising 50-DMA isn't all that surprising.
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Even though all their 50-DMAs are rising, not every industry group is currently trading above its 50-DMA. While the reading briefly reached 100% in late May and early June, two industry groups have since pulled back below their 50-DMAs, putting the percentage at a still impressive 91.7%.
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The table below summarizes industry group performance showing YTD performance, where each one is trading relative to its 50-DMA, as well as where the group is trading relative to its 52-week high.
As mentioned above, all but two groups (Drugs & Biotech and Food & Staples Retail) remain above their 50-DMAs, and another four are less than 2% above their 50-DMA. If Friday's sell-off deepens into next week, the percentage of industry groups above their 50-DMAs has the potential to quickly sink as low as 75%. Of the 22 industry groups that are above their 50-DMAs, Autos and Tech Hardware are the only two greater than 10% above.
On a YTD basis, the S&P 500 is down less than 4%, but for the vast majority of industry groups, performance has been worse than that. Of the 24 groups shown, 16 are down more than 4% YTD, including eleven that are down over 10%. The worst performers of these losers include Energy, Banks, and Autos. While Energy gets most of the attention for being so weak, Banks are essentially down just as much! On the upside, just two industry groups are up over 10% (Retailers, which is basically Amazon, and Software & Services). Retailing is also the one industry group that is within 1% of a 52-week high and one of seven that is within 4% of a 52-week high.
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We've noted in detail the massive reversals seen in global equities over the last three months, but outside of equities, we've also seen some other massive moves. One example is credit spreads between the yields of corporate and high yield bonds relative to Treasuries.
The top chart below shows the spread in yields between the B of A Corporate Index relative to Treasuries going back to 1997, and below that, we show the 50-day rate of change in the spread. Heading into the COVID-crash, spreads on corporate bonds were less than 100 basis points (bps), meaning the corporate bond index was yielding only 1 percentage point more than comparable Treasury yields. In the span of less than two months, though, spreads surged by more than 300 bps to over 400 bps. Not since the depths of the credit crisis in 2009 had we seen spreads widen out more than they did in March. Just as notable as the level is the fact that the speed with which spreads widened during the COVID-crash was similar to the pace during the credit crisis.
While spreads were quick to spike during both crises, they narrowed nearly as fast both times. Going back to 1997, the most corporate spreads have ever narrowed over a 50-day period was in June 2009. Coming in at a close second place, though, the 50-day period ending in early June was nearly as extreme.
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Similar to spreads on corporate bonds, the movement in spreads on high yield (junk) credit has been nearly as extreme. While spreads on the B of A High Yield Master Index widened out by only half as much during the COVID-crash as they did during the Financial Crisis, the 50-day move ending in late March was easily more extreme than any other period outside of the credit crisis.
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A shown in both charts above, the only time both corporate and high yield spreads narrowed by an amount anywhere close to the amount they narrowed from late March through early June was back in early June of 2009. The chart below of the S&P 500 shows that point from the perspective of the S&P 500. That period in June 2009 was right in the early stages of what turned out to be a multi-year bull market. Given the similar tightening in the credit market now versus back then, should we assume a similar move for equities going forward?
After the last five months, we'll be the first to say that anything is possible. However, while there are plenty of similarities between the moves in credit markets over the last three months versus the first half of 2009, there are also important distinctions. The most important of these has to do with where the S&P 500 is trading right now. The second chart below shows the historical levels the S&P 500 has traded at relative to its all-time high. Even after the initial narrowing of credit spreads from March through early June 2009, the S&P 500 was still more than 40% off its all-time highs, and therefore still had a lot of climbing to do to get out of the hole. Back in June 2009, to get back to its all-time high from October 2007, the S&P 500 still had to rally another 75%. Today, it's a much different picture as the S&P 500 is already within 10% of its February 2020 all-time high. Could we be in the earlier stages of what turns out to be another long-term bull market? Sure. Will the magnitude of the gains be anything like the gains early on in the bull market that began in 2009? It's unlikely.
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As economies around the country slowly recover from COVID-19 and reopenings proceed, economic activity is slowly recovering. For the hardest-hit sectors, though, the recovery is only inching forward. Security checkpoint volumes at US airports are still down 80% YoY, and the trend of improvement is only set to return travel activity to 50% of 2019 levels in September.
For restaurants, OpenTable data shows covers down by two-thirds from last year, though some of that is because many restaurants remain closed. Among reopened establishments, the number of seated customers are still down almost 40% YoY. About half of restaurants remain closed per the OpenTable data. We discussed this chart and other retail enthusiasm indicators in last night's Closer report, which is available to Bespoke Institutional members.
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Yesterday, The Conference Board released last month’s reading for its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, which showed a month-over-month increase of 2.8%. As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, the return to positive territory follows three straight months of negative monthly growth.
”We noted that the pace of the LEI’s deterioration slowed in the April report, potentially suggesting a bottom forming in the US economy,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Yesterday’s print was one of several positive economic data surprises we’ve observed recently, bolstering our optimistic view for economic growth in the second half of the year.”
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While the economy still has a ways to go in order to recover from the damage of the prior three months, the composition of May’s LEI advance encourages us. We noted a disconnect in April’s readout in which the financial market indicators tended to be net positive contributors while the “real economy” indicators detracted. May’s release saw a reversal of that trend whereby the economic subindexes played catch-up. Seven of the 10 components were positive contributors led by an improvement in average weekly initial unemployment claims, average weekly manufacturing hours, and building permits. The three negative contributors were the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) New Orders Index, average consumer expectations for business conditions, and the Leading Credit Index.
The most recent LEI release reinforces our view that an economic bottom is likely behind us. Workers starting to return to jobs that they were unable to do remotely had material effects on May’s readout, and if that trend continues, a stock market trading at stretched valuations would have a stronger foundation under it.
Stocks have shaken off the 5.9% S&P 500 Index drop last Thursday by gaining three days in a row before yesterday’s modest weakness. While researching and reading this week, three charts stood out that tell us quite a good deal about how investors have reacted during this volatile market and what could be next.
“Incredibly, we saw nearly a third of all investors over 65 years old sell their full equity holdings,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “With stocks now back near highs, this is yet another reason to have a plan in place before trouble comes, as making decisions when under duress can lead to the exact wrong decision.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, according to data from Fidelity Investments, nearly 18% of all investors sold their full equity holdings between February and May, while a much higher percentage that were closer to retirement (or in retirement) sold. Some might have bought back in, but odds are that many are feeling quite upset with the record bounce back in stocks here.
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Along these same lines, investors have recently moved to cash at a record pace. In fact, there is now nearly $5 trillion in money market funds, almost twice the levels we saw this time only five years ago. Also, the past three months saw the largest three-month change ever, as investors ran to the safety of cash. If you were looking for a reason stocks could continue to go higher over the longer term, there really is a lot of cash on the sidelines right now.
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Last, we noted last week that the extreme overbought nature of stocks here is actually consistent with the start of a new bull run, not a bear market bounce, or the end of a bull market. Adding to this, the spread between the number of stocks above their 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average was near the highest level ever. Think about it; with the 45% bounce in the S&P 500, many stocks were above their 50-day moving average, but not nearly as many were above their 200-day moving average. So from a longer-term perspective, there could still be gains to be had.
Sure enough, looking at other times that had wide spreads, they took place near the start of major bull markets. Near-term the potential is there for a well-deserved pullback, but going out 6 to 12 months, stocks have consistently outperformed.
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July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 and 2018 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 74, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020).
July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months and is the third weakest performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.5% average gain. Dynamic trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year brings an inflow of new capital. This creates a bullish beginning, a soft week after options expiration and some strength towards the end.
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Election year Julys rank in the bottom half of all election year months. DJIA: 0.5%, 6th worst; S&P 0.4% 6th worst; NASDAQ (since 1972): -0.7% 3rd worst; Russell 2000 (since 1980): -0.2% 3rd worst.
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- $NKE
- $RAD
- $DRI
- $WGO
- $MKC
- $WTI
- $INFO
- $ACN
- $KBH
- $SOHO
- $FDS
- $BB
- $AVAV
- $LZB
- $XAIR
- $CAAS
- $MCF
- $BWAY
- $SNX
- $GMS
- $WOR
- $QMCO
- $AFMD
- $EPAC
- $WUBA
- $USAT
- $NG
- $PDCO
- $APOG
- $PRGS
- $FUL
- $AEMD
- $AIH
- $YRD
- $STAF
- $UFAB
- $CAMP
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Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $8.35 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 95.16% with revenue decreasing by 18.01%. Short interest has decreased by 0.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.9% above its 200 day moving average of $92.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,691 contracts of the $102.00 call expiring on Friday, July 10, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.
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Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $1.78 per share on revenue of $1.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($1.68) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 201.14% with revenue decreasing by 43.92%. Short interest has increased by 33.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 108.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 27.4% below its 200 day moving average of $96.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,882 contracts of the $70.00 call and 814 contracts of the $80.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.
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Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.38 per share on revenue of $5.60 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 171.43% with revenue increasing by 4.23%. Short interest has increased by 11.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% below its 200 day moving average of $12.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,617 contracts of the $14.00 call expiring on Friday, June 26, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 21.4% move in recent quarters.
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Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.41 per share on revenue of $325.94 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.96% with revenue decreasing by 38.38%. Short interest has increased by 12.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 156.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.4% above its 200 day moving average of $46.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 583 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.3% move in recent quarters.
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McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.14 per share on revenue of $1.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.18 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.72% with revenue decreasing by 0.91%. Short interest has decreased by 27.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $160.35. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.
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W&T Offshore Inc. (WTI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:45 PM ET on Monday, June 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $129.93 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 11.93%. Short interest has increased by 95.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.8% below its 200 day moving average of $3.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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IHS Markit Ltd. (INFO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.67 per share on revenue of $1.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.63% with revenue decreasing by 7.53%. Short interest has decreased by 27.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 44.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.4% above its 200 day moving average of $69.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
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Accenture Ltd. (ACN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.84 per share on revenue of $10.94 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.89 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.66% with revenue decreasing by 1.44%. Short interest has increased by 20.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.6% above its 200 day moving average of $190.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 5, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,740 contracts of the $190.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.
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Sotherly Hotels Inc. (SOHO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.16 per share on revenue of $16.30 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 26% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 48.39% with revenue decreasing by 65.60%. Short interest has increased by 2,813.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 43.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.4% below its 200 day moving average of $4.88. The stock has averaged a 3.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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KB Home (KBH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $1.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.49 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.76% with revenue increasing by 14.50%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 65.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.6% above its 200 day moving average of $31.18. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to reassure markets next week the central bank will do whatever it takes to help the economy heal. That should be enough to keep investors moving into stocks that benefit from an economic rebound and push the S&P 500 into the green for 2020.
The stock market, so eager to put the entire blow from the pandemic behind it, is now coming to terms that a “V-shaped” recovery might be too rosy a scenario.
With recent spikes in coronavirus cases and fluctuations in the economic data, the market seems to be stuck in a range amid elevated volatility. Market analysts said investors should expect more turbulence ahead because the economic recovery is most likely to be bumpy.
“The market was priced for a continuation of improvement and I think that’s overstating what’s going to happen,” said Brian Levitt, Invesco’s global market strategist. “We are going to have episodes of cases rising. We are going to have a very slow and uneven improvement in the jobs market.”
After soaring more than 40% from the March lows, the S&P 500 turned sideways in the past two weeks, trading at similar levels to early June. The market, which used to turn a blind eye to disastrous news on the thinking that the economy had already bottomed, has become more vulnerable to negative economic headlines as the data begins to give a read on the shape of the recovery.
Stocks came under pressure earlier this week after data showed weekly jobless claims rose more than expected last week, and the number stayed above 1 million for the 13th consecutive week.
And on the virus front, California, Texas, Florida and Arizona have reported an uptick in new infections and hospitalizations amid the reopening. Apple said Friday that it’s again closing some stores in Florida, North Carolina and Arizona due to the spikes in coronavirus cases, which sparked a sell-off in the market, especially among retail stocks.
“The economy is going to need more help to bounce back in months to come,” said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “For now, volatility and choppy markets remain our base case as an uneven economic recovery likely unfolds.”
‘Rolling Ws’
The rally in those popular reopening trades — airlines, cruise lines and hotels — is seemingly losing steam. Shares of American Airlines and Delta posted their second straight weekly losses. So did Carnival, Norwegian Cruise and MGM Resorts. Those stocks were once the high-beta leaders of the market comeback as investors bet that a successful reopening would take hold.
“Although the stock market was suggesting a V-shaped recovery, the more likely scenario is rolling Ws,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said in a note.
A similar market pattern happened during the financial crisis, pointed out by Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. After stocks rallied nearly 40% from the 2009 bottom, the market was range-bound for about seven weeks so the fundamentals could catch up, Colas noted.
From a technical perspective, Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, is watching if the S&P 500 can break above its recent high of 3,232 or drop below the 3,000 threshold or its 200-day moving average of 3,018 as of Friday.
“Whichever way it breaks...should be an very important development in trying to determine how this critical juncture in the stock market will be resolved,” Maley said in a note.
Fed can’t prevent volatility
While the flattening virus curve played a big role in the market rebound, it’s no denying that the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented stimulus has been a key driver in lifting stocks from the coronavirus slump. The central bank unleashed another weapon in its arsenal this week, saying it will start buying individual corporate bonds.
As comforting as it is to have the Fed’s support, the central bank can only do so much to ease investor fears.
“The Fed can’t prevent the volatility we’re seeing in stocks,” Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, said in a note. “It will likely take years for the economy to fully recover and there remain other uncertainties on the path ahead. As such, investors may continue to struggle with this mismatch between markets and the economy before seeing the case for new highs.”
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reminded investors again this week in his semiannual testimony before Congress that “significant uncertainty remains about the timing and strength of the recovery.”
Many on Wall Street have also warned that extended policy measures including injection of trillions of cheap money would lead to problems down the road such as hyperinflation.
100 days ago today on March 11th, the WHO made it official and declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. Markets were already under a lot of pressure before the WHO declared the pandemic, but the 100 days since will probably go down as some of the craziest 100 days we'll ever experience, not only in the market but in general society as well. More than enough ink and pixels have been spent discussing the societal impact at large, so we'll spare you and just focus on the markets.
While much of the declines were already in the rearview mirror by the time the WHO made its announcement, equities still had a steep decline in the immediate aftermath. The large-cap Russell 1000, for example, fell another 19% to its March 23rd closing low, but after the rebound, the net change since the pandemic was officially declared > has been a gain of 14.3%.
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As impressive as the Russell 1000's gain has been in the face of the global pandemic, many stocks have done a lot better than that. The table below lists the 25 stocks in the index that have seen the biggest gains so far during this pandemic. Topping the list is Wayfair (W) which has rallied more than 350%. If there is one thing Americans must have realized while they were stuck at home under lockdown it was that they needed some new furniture! Behind Wayfair, two other stocks have more than tripled and both were beaten down stocks from the Energy sector that were trading at less than $2 per share on March 11th. A number of familiar names standout including Moderna (MRNA), Twilio (TWLO), DocuSign (DOCU), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Etsy (ETSY), but looking through the list, there's really a diverse group of names ranging from bombed-out stocks from the Energy sector (8 stocks), Consumer names (7 stocks), and the ever-popular software stocks from the Technology sector (6 stocks). It's definitely been a rocky road for the markets over the last 100 days, but for anyone who had these names in their portfolio, they aren't complaining. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for access to our weekly Bespoke Report which includes an update to our Stocks for the COVID economy portfolio that was released on March 11th.
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Equity markets have become a bit wobbly in the last week or so, but breadth, in terms of large-cap industry groups, still remains pretty robust. Relative to their 50-DMAs, all 24 S&P 500 industry groups still have rising 50-DMAs. When you consider the fact that the 50-day window spans the period going back to early April, a period encompassing most of what was one of the strongest 50-day rallies on record, the fact that every industry group has a rising 50-DMA isn't all that surprising.
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Even though all their 50-DMAs are rising, not every industry group is currently trading above its 50-DMA. While the reading briefly reached 100% in late May and early June, two industry groups have since pulled back below their 50-DMAs, putting the percentage at a still impressive 91.7%.
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The table below summarizes industry group performance showing YTD performance, where each one is trading relative to its 50-DMA, as well as where the group is trading relative to its 52-week high.
As mentioned above, all but two groups (Drugs & Biotech and Food & Staples Retail) remain above their 50-DMAs, and another four are less than 2% above their 50-DMA. If Friday's sell-off deepens into next week, the percentage of industry groups above their 50-DMAs has the potential to quickly sink as low as 75%. Of the 22 industry groups that are above their 50-DMAs, Autos and Tech Hardware are the only two greater than 10% above.
On a YTD basis, the S&P 500 is down less than 4%, but for the vast majority of industry groups, performance has been worse than that. Of the 24 groups shown, 16 are down more than 4% YTD, including eleven that are down over 10%. The worst performers of these losers include Energy, Banks, and Autos. While Energy gets most of the attention for being so weak, Banks are essentially down just as much! On the upside, just two industry groups are up over 10% (Retailers, which is basically Amazon, and Software & Services). Retailing is also the one industry group that is within 1% of a 52-week high and one of seven that is within 4% of a 52-week high.
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We've noted in detail the massive reversals seen in global equities over the last three months, but outside of equities, we've also seen some other massive moves. One example is credit spreads between the yields of corporate and high yield bonds relative to Treasuries.
The top chart below shows the spread in yields between the B of A Corporate Index relative to Treasuries going back to 1997, and below that, we show the 50-day rate of change in the spread. Heading into the COVID-crash, spreads on corporate bonds were less than 100 basis points (bps), meaning the corporate bond index was yielding only 1 percentage point more than comparable Treasury yields. In the span of less than two months, though, spreads surged by more than 300 bps to over 400 bps. Not since the depths of the credit crisis in 2009 had we seen spreads widen out more than they did in March. Just as notable as the level is the fact that the speed with which spreads widened during the COVID-crash was similar to the pace during the credit crisis.
While spreads were quick to spike during both crises, they narrowed nearly as fast both times. Going back to 1997, the most corporate spreads have ever narrowed over a 50-day period was in June 2009. Coming in at a close second place, though, the 50-day period ending in early June was nearly as extreme.
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Similar to spreads on corporate bonds, the movement in spreads on high yield (junk) credit has been nearly as extreme. While spreads on the B of A High Yield Master Index widened out by only half as much during the COVID-crash as they did during the Financial Crisis, the 50-day move ending in late March was easily more extreme than any other period outside of the credit crisis.
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A shown in both charts above, the only time both corporate and high yield spreads narrowed by an amount anywhere close to the amount they narrowed from late March through early June was back in early June of 2009. The chart below of the S&P 500 shows that point from the perspective of the S&P 500. That period in June 2009 was right in the early stages of what turned out to be a multi-year bull market. Given the similar tightening in the credit market now versus back then, should we assume a similar move for equities going forward?
After the last five months, we'll be the first to say that anything is possible. However, while there are plenty of similarities between the moves in credit markets over the last three months versus the first half of 2009, there are also important distinctions. The most important of these has to do with where the S&P 500 is trading right now. The second chart below shows the historical levels the S&P 500 has traded at relative to its all-time high. Even after the initial narrowing of credit spreads from March through early June 2009, the S&P 500 was still more than 40% off its all-time highs, and therefore still had a lot of climbing to do to get out of the hole. Back in June 2009, to get back to its all-time high from October 2007, the S&P 500 still had to rally another 75%. Today, it's a much different picture as the S&P 500 is already within 10% of its February 2020 all-time high. Could we be in the earlier stages of what turns out to be another long-term bull market? Sure. Will the magnitude of the gains be anything like the gains early on in the bull market that began in 2009? It's unlikely.
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As economies around the country slowly recover from COVID-19 and reopenings proceed, economic activity is slowly recovering. For the hardest-hit sectors, though, the recovery is only inching forward. Security checkpoint volumes at US airports are still down 80% YoY, and the trend of improvement is only set to return travel activity to 50% of 2019 levels in September.
For restaurants, OpenTable data shows covers down by two-thirds from last year, though some of that is because many restaurants remain closed. Among reopened establishments, the number of seated customers are still down almost 40% YoY. About half of restaurants remain closed per the OpenTable data. We discussed this chart and other retail enthusiasm indicators in last night's Closer report, which is available to Bespoke Institutional members.
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Yesterday, The Conference Board released last month’s reading for its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, which showed a month-over-month increase of 2.8%. As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, the return to positive territory follows three straight months of negative monthly growth.
”We noted that the pace of the LEI’s deterioration slowed in the April report, potentially suggesting a bottom forming in the US economy,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Yesterday’s print was one of several positive economic data surprises we’ve observed recently, bolstering our optimistic view for economic growth in the second half of the year.”
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While the economy still has a ways to go in order to recover from the damage of the prior three months, the composition of May’s LEI advance encourages us. We noted a disconnect in April’s readout in which the financial market indicators tended to be net positive contributors while the “real economy” indicators detracted. May’s release saw a reversal of that trend whereby the economic subindexes played catch-up. Seven of the 10 components were positive contributors led by an improvement in average weekly initial unemployment claims, average weekly manufacturing hours, and building permits. The three negative contributors were the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) New Orders Index, average consumer expectations for business conditions, and the Leading Credit Index.
The most recent LEI release reinforces our view that an economic bottom is likely behind us. Workers starting to return to jobs that they were unable to do remotely had material effects on May’s readout, and if that trend continues, a stock market trading at stretched valuations would have a stronger foundation under it.
Stocks have shaken off the 5.9% S&P 500 Index drop last Thursday by gaining three days in a row before yesterday’s modest weakness. While researching and reading this week, three charts stood out that tell us quite a good deal about how investors have reacted during this volatile market and what could be next.
“Incredibly, we saw nearly a third of all investors over 65 years old sell their full equity holdings,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “With stocks now back near highs, this is yet another reason to have a plan in place before trouble comes, as making decisions when under duress can lead to the exact wrong decision.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, according to data from Fidelity Investments, nearly 18% of all investors sold their full equity holdings between February and May, while a much higher percentage that were closer to retirement (or in retirement) sold. Some might have bought back in, but odds are that many are feeling quite upset with the record bounce back in stocks here.
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Along these same lines, investors have recently moved to cash at a record pace. In fact, there is now nearly $5 trillion in money market funds, almost twice the levels we saw this time only five years ago. Also, the past three months saw the largest three-month change ever, as investors ran to the safety of cash. If you were looking for a reason stocks could continue to go higher over the longer term, there really is a lot of cash on the sidelines right now.
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Last, we noted last week that the extreme overbought nature of stocks here is actually consistent with the start of a new bull run, not a bear market bounce, or the end of a bull market. Adding to this, the spread between the number of stocks above their 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average was near the highest level ever. Think about it; with the 45% bounce in the S&P 500, many stocks were above their 50-day moving average, but not nearly as many were above their 200-day moving average. So from a longer-term perspective, there could still be gains to be had.
Sure enough, looking at other times that had wide spreads, they took place near the start of major bull markets. Near-term the potential is there for a well-deserved pullback, but going out 6 to 12 months, stocks have consistently outperformed.
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July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 and 2018 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 74, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020).
July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months and is the third weakest performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.5% average gain. Dynamic trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year brings an inflow of new capital. This creates a bullish beginning, a soft week after options expiration and some strength towards the end.
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Election year Julys rank in the bottom half of all election year months. DJIA: 0.5%, 6th worst; S&P 0.4% 6th worst; NASDAQ (since 1972): -0.7% 3rd worst; Russell 2000 (since 1980): -0.2% 3rd worst.
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- $NKE
- $RAD
- $DRI
- $WGO
- $MKC
- $WTI
- $INFO
- $ACN
- $KBH
- $SOHO
- $FDS
- $BB
- $AVAV
- $LZB
- $XAIR
- $CAAS
- $MCF
- $BWAY
- $SNX
- $GMS
- $WOR
- $QMCO
- $AFMD
- $EPAC
- $WUBA
- $USAT
- $NG
- $PDCO
- $APOG
- $PRGS
- $FUL
- $AEMD
- $AIH
- $YRD
- $STAF
- $UFAB
- $CAMP
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Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $8.35 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 95.16% with revenue decreasing by 18.01%. Short interest has decreased by 0.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.9% above its 200 day moving average of $92.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,691 contracts of the $102.00 call expiring on Friday, July 10, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.
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Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $1.78 per share on revenue of $1.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($1.68) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 201.14% with revenue decreasing by 43.92%. Short interest has increased by 33.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 108.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 27.4% below its 200 day moving average of $96.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,882 contracts of the $70.00 call and 814 contracts of the $80.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.
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Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.38 per share on revenue of $5.60 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 171.43% with revenue increasing by 4.23%. Short interest has increased by 11.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% below its 200 day moving average of $12.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,617 contracts of the $14.00 call expiring on Friday, June 26, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 21.4% move in recent quarters.
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Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.41 per share on revenue of $325.94 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.96% with revenue decreasing by 38.38%. Short interest has increased by 12.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 156.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.4% above its 200 day moving average of $46.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 583 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.3% move in recent quarters.
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McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.14 per share on revenue of $1.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.18 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.72% with revenue decreasing by 0.91%. Short interest has decreased by 27.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $160.35. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.
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W&T Offshore Inc. (WTI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:45 PM ET on Monday, June 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $129.93 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 11.93%. Short interest has increased by 95.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.8% below its 200 day moving average of $3.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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IHS Markit Ltd. (INFO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.67 per share on revenue of $1.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.63% with revenue decreasing by 7.53%. Short interest has decreased by 27.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 44.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.4% above its 200 day moving average of $69.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
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Accenture Ltd. (ACN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.84 per share on revenue of $10.94 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.89 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.66% with revenue decreasing by 1.44%. Short interest has increased by 20.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.6% above its 200 day moving average of $190.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 5, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,740 contracts of the $190.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.
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Sotherly Hotels Inc. (SOHO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.16 per share on revenue of $16.30 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 26% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 48.39% with revenue decreasing by 65.60%. Short interest has increased by 2,813.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 43.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.4% below its 200 day moving average of $4.88. The stock has averaged a 3.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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KB Home (KBH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $1.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.49 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.76% with revenue increasing by 14.50%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 65.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.6% above its 200 day moving average of $31.18. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to reassure markets next week the central bank will do whatever it takes to help the economy heal. That should be enough to keep investors moving into stocks that benefit from an economic rebound and push the S&P 500 into the green for 2020.
The stock market, so eager to put the entire blow from the pandemic behind it, is now coming to terms that a “V-shaped” recovery might be too rosy a scenario.
With recent spikes in coronavirus cases and fluctuations in the economic data, the market seems to be stuck in a range amid elevated volatility. Market analysts said investors should expect more turbulence ahead because the economic recovery is most likely to be bumpy.
“The market was priced for a continuation of improvement and I think that’s overstating what’s going to happen,” said Brian Levitt, Invesco’s global market strategist. “We are going to have episodes of cases rising. We are going to have a very slow and uneven improvement in the jobs market.”
After soaring more than 40% from the March lows, the S&P 500 turned sideways in the past two weeks, trading at similar levels to early June. The market, which used to turn a blind eye to disastrous news on the thinking that the economy had already bottomed, has become more vulnerable to negative economic headlines as the data begins to give a read on the shape of the recovery.
Stocks came under pressure earlier this week after data showed weekly jobless claims rose more than expected last week, and the number stayed above 1 million for the 13th consecutive week.
And on the virus front, California, Texas, Florida and Arizona have reported an uptick in new infections and hospitalizations amid the reopening. Apple said Friday that it’s again closing some stores in Florida, North Carolina and Arizona due to the spikes in coronavirus cases, which sparked a sell-off in the market, especially among retail stocks.
“The economy is going to need more help to bounce back in months to come,” said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “For now, volatility and choppy markets remain our base case as an uneven economic recovery likely unfolds.”
‘Rolling Ws’
The rally in those popular reopening trades — airlines, cruise lines and hotels — is seemingly losing steam. Shares of American Airlines and Delta posted their second straight weekly losses. So did Carnival, Norwegian Cruise and MGM Resorts. Those stocks were once the high-beta leaders of the market comeback as investors bet that a successful reopening would take hold.
“Although the stock market was suggesting a V-shaped recovery, the more likely scenario is rolling Ws,” Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said in a note.
A similar market pattern happened during the financial crisis, pointed out by Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. After stocks rallied nearly 40% from the 2009 bottom, the market was range-bound for about seven weeks so the fundamentals could catch up, Colas noted.
From a technical perspective, Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, is watching if the S&P 500 can break above its recent high of 3,232 or drop below the 3,000 threshold or its 200-day moving average of 3,018 as of Friday.
“Whichever way it breaks...should be an very important development in trying to determine how this critical juncture in the stock market will be resolved,” Maley said in a note.
Fed can’t prevent volatility
While the flattening virus curve played a big role in the market rebound, it’s no denying that the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented stimulus has been a key driver in lifting stocks from the coronavirus slump. The central bank unleashed another weapon in its arsenal this week, saying it will start buying individual corporate bonds.
As comforting as it is to have the Fed’s support, the central bank can only do so much to ease investor fears.
“The Fed can’t prevent the volatility we’re seeing in stocks,” Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest, said in a note. “It will likely take years for the economy to fully recover and there remain other uncertainties on the path ahead. As such, investors may continue to struggle with this mismatch between markets and the economy before seeing the case for new highs.”
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reminded investors again this week in his semiannual testimony before Congress that “significant uncertainty remains about the timing and strength of the recovery.”
Many on Wall Street have also warned that extended policy measures including injection of trillions of cheap money would lead to problems down the road such as hyperinflation.
100 days ago today on March 11th, the WHO made it official and declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic. Markets were already under a lot of pressure before the WHO declared the pandemic, but the 100 days since will probably go down as some of the craziest 100 days we'll ever experience, not only in the market but in general society as well. More than enough ink and pixels have been spent discussing the societal impact at large, so we'll spare you and just focus on the markets.
While much of the declines were already in the rearview mirror by the time the WHO made its announcement, equities still had a steep decline in the immediate aftermath. The large-cap Russell 1000, for example, fell another 19% to its March 23rd closing low, but after the rebound, the net change since the pandemic was officially declared > has been a gain of 14.3%.
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As impressive as the Russell 1000's gain has been in the face of the global pandemic, many stocks have done a lot better than that. The table below lists the 25 stocks in the index that have seen the biggest gains so far during this pandemic. Topping the list is Wayfair (W) which has rallied more than 350%. If there is one thing Americans must have realized while they were stuck at home under lockdown it was that they needed some new furniture! Behind Wayfair, two other stocks have more than tripled and both were beaten down stocks from the Energy sector that were trading at less than $2 per share on March 11th. A number of familiar names standout including Moderna (MRNA), Twilio (TWLO), DocuSign (DOCU), Beyond Meat (BYND), and Etsy (ETSY), but looking through the list, there's really a diverse group of names ranging from bombed-out stocks from the Energy sector (8 stocks), Consumer names (7 stocks), and the ever-popular software stocks from the Technology sector (6 stocks). It's definitely been a rocky road for the markets over the last 100 days, but for anyone who had these names in their portfolio, they aren't complaining. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for access to our weekly Bespoke Report which includes an update to our Stocks for the COVID economy portfolio that was released on March 11th.
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Equity markets have become a bit wobbly in the last week or so, but breadth, in terms of large-cap industry groups, still remains pretty robust. Relative to their 50-DMAs, all 24 S&P 500 industry groups still have rising 50-DMAs. When you consider the fact that the 50-day window spans the period going back to early April, a period encompassing most of what was one of the strongest 50-day rallies on record, the fact that every industry group has a rising 50-DMA isn't all that surprising.
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Even though all their 50-DMAs are rising, not every industry group is currently trading above its 50-DMA. While the reading briefly reached 100% in late May and early June, two industry groups have since pulled back below their 50-DMAs, putting the percentage at a still impressive 91.7%.
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The table below summarizes industry group performance showing YTD performance, where each one is trading relative to its 50-DMA, as well as where the group is trading relative to its 52-week high.
As mentioned above, all but two groups (Drugs & Biotech and Food & Staples Retail) remain above their 50-DMAs, and another four are less than 2% above their 50-DMA. If Friday's sell-off deepens into next week, the percentage of industry groups above their 50-DMAs has the potential to quickly sink as low as 75%. Of the 22 industry groups that are above their 50-DMAs, Autos and Tech Hardware are the only two greater than 10% above.
On a YTD basis, the S&P 500 is down less than 4%, but for the vast majority of industry groups, performance has been worse than that. Of the 24 groups shown, 16 are down more than 4% YTD, including eleven that are down over 10%. The worst performers of these losers include Energy, Banks, and Autos. While Energy gets most of the attention for being so weak, Banks are essentially down just as much! On the upside, just two industry groups are up over 10% (Retailers, which is basically Amazon, and Software & Services). Retailing is also the one industry group that is within 1% of a 52-week high and one of seven that is within 4% of a 52-week high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We've noted in detail the massive reversals seen in global equities over the last three months, but outside of equities, we've also seen some other massive moves. One example is credit spreads between the yields of corporate and high yield bonds relative to Treasuries.
The top chart below shows the spread in yields between the B of A Corporate Index relative to Treasuries going back to 1997, and below that, we show the 50-day rate of change in the spread. Heading into the COVID-crash, spreads on corporate bonds were less than 100 basis points (bps), meaning the corporate bond index was yielding only 1 percentage point more than comparable Treasury yields. In the span of less than two months, though, spreads surged by more than 300 bps to over 400 bps. Not since the depths of the credit crisis in 2009 had we seen spreads widen out more than they did in March. Just as notable as the level is the fact that the speed with which spreads widened during the COVID-crash was similar to the pace during the credit crisis.
While spreads were quick to spike during both crises, they narrowed nearly as fast both times. Going back to 1997, the most corporate spreads have ever narrowed over a 50-day period was in June 2009. Coming in at a close second place, though, the 50-day period ending in early June was nearly as extreme.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Similar to spreads on corporate bonds, the movement in spreads on high yield (junk) credit has been nearly as extreme. While spreads on the B of A High Yield Master Index widened out by only half as much during the COVID-crash as they did during the Financial Crisis, the 50-day move ending in late March was easily more extreme than any other period outside of the credit crisis.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A shown in both charts above, the only time both corporate and high yield spreads narrowed by an amount anywhere close to the amount they narrowed from late March through early June was back in early June of 2009. The chart below of the S&P 500 shows that point from the perspective of the S&P 500. That period in June 2009 was right in the early stages of what turned out to be a multi-year bull market. Given the similar tightening in the credit market now versus back then, should we assume a similar move for equities going forward?
After the last five months, we'll be the first to say that anything is possible. However, while there are plenty of similarities between the moves in credit markets over the last three months versus the first half of 2009, there are also important distinctions. The most important of these has to do with where the S&P 500 is trading right now. The second chart below shows the historical levels the S&P 500 has traded at relative to its all-time high. Even after the initial narrowing of credit spreads from March through early June 2009, the S&P 500 was still more than 40% off its all-time highs, and therefore still had a lot of climbing to do to get out of the hole. Back in June 2009, to get back to its all-time high from October 2007, the S&P 500 still had to rally another 75%. Today, it's a much different picture as the S&P 500 is already within 10% of its February 2020 all-time high. Could we be in the earlier stages of what turns out to be another long-term bull market? Sure. Will the magnitude of the gains be anything like the gains early on in the bull market that began in 2009? It's unlikely.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As economies around the country slowly recover from COVID-19 and reopenings proceed, economic activity is slowly recovering. For the hardest-hit sectors, though, the recovery is only inching forward. Security checkpoint volumes at US airports are still down 80% YoY, and the trend of improvement is only set to return travel activity to 50% of 2019 levels in September.
For restaurants, OpenTable data shows covers down by two-thirds from last year, though some of that is because many restaurants remain closed. Among reopened establishments, the number of seated customers are still down almost 40% YoY. About half of restaurants remain closed per the OpenTable data. We discussed this chart and other retail enthusiasm indicators in last night's Closer report, which is available to Bespoke Institutional members.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Yesterday, The Conference Board released last month’s reading for its Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, which showed a month-over-month increase of 2.8%. As seen in the LPL Chart of the Day, the return to positive territory follows three straight months of negative monthly growth.
”We noted that the pace of the LEI’s deterioration slowed in the April report, potentially suggesting a bottom forming in the US economy,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Yesterday’s print was one of several positive economic data surprises we’ve observed recently, bolstering our optimistic view for economic growth in the second half of the year.”
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the economy still has a ways to go in order to recover from the damage of the prior three months, the composition of May’s LEI advance encourages us. We noted a disconnect in April’s readout in which the financial market indicators tended to be net positive contributors while the “real economy” indicators detracted. May’s release saw a reversal of that trend whereby the economic subindexes played catch-up. Seven of the 10 components were positive contributors led by an improvement in average weekly initial unemployment claims, average weekly manufacturing hours, and building permits. The three negative contributors were the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) New Orders Index, average consumer expectations for business conditions, and the Leading Credit Index.
The most recent LEI release reinforces our view that an economic bottom is likely behind us. Workers starting to return to jobs that they were unable to do remotely had material effects on May’s readout, and if that trend continues, a stock market trading at stretched valuations would have a stronger foundation under it.
Stocks have shaken off the 5.9% S&P 500 Index drop last Thursday by gaining three days in a row before yesterday’s modest weakness. While researching and reading this week, three charts stood out that tell us quite a good deal about how investors have reacted during this volatile market and what could be next.
“Incredibly, we saw nearly a third of all investors over 65 years old sell their full equity holdings,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “With stocks now back near highs, this is yet another reason to have a plan in place before trouble comes, as making decisions when under duress can lead to the exact wrong decision.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, according to data from Fidelity Investments, nearly 18% of all investors sold their full equity holdings between February and May, while a much higher percentage that were closer to retirement (or in retirement) sold. Some might have bought back in, but odds are that many are feeling quite upset with the record bounce back in stocks here.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Along these same lines, investors have recently moved to cash at a record pace. In fact, there is now nearly $5 trillion in money market funds, almost twice the levels we saw this time only five years ago. Also, the past three months saw the largest three-month change ever, as investors ran to the safety of cash. If you were looking for a reason stocks could continue to go higher over the longer term, there really is a lot of cash on the sidelines right now.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last, we noted last week that the extreme overbought nature of stocks here is actually consistent with the start of a new bull run, not a bear market bounce, or the end of a bull market. Adding to this, the spread between the number of stocks above their 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average was near the highest level ever. Think about it; with the 45% bounce in the S&P 500, many stocks were above their 50-day moving average, but not nearly as many were above their 200-day moving average. So from a longer-term perspective, there could still be gains to be had.
Sure enough, looking at other times that had wide spreads, they took place near the start of major bull markets. Near-term the potential is there for a well-deserved pullback, but going out 6 to 12 months, stocks have consistently outperformed.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September tend to make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 and 2018 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 74, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020).
July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months and is the third weakest performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.5% average gain. Dynamic trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year brings an inflow of new capital. This creates a bullish beginning, a soft week after options expiration and some strength towards the end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Election year Julys rank in the bottom half of all election year months. DJIA: 0.5%, 6th worst; S&P 0.4% 6th worst; NASDAQ (since 1972): -0.7% 3rd worst; Russell 2000 (since 1980): -0.2% 3rd worst.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
- $NKE
- $RAD
- $DRI
- $WGO
- $MKC
- $WTI
- $INFO
- $ACN
- $KBH
- $SOHO
- $FDS
- $BB
- $AVAV
- $LZB
- $XAIR
- $CAAS
- $MCF
- $BWAY
- $SNX
- $GMS
- $WOR
- $QMCO
- $AFMD
- $EPAC
- $WUBA
- $USAT
- $NG
- $PDCO
- $APOG
- $PRGS
- $FUL
- $AEMD
- $AIH
- $YRD
- $STAF
- $UFAB
- $CAMP
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Tuesday 6.23.20 After Market Close:
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Wednesday 6.24.20 After Market Close:
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Nike Inc (NKE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:15 PM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $8.35 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 50% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 95.16% with revenue decreasing by 18.01%. Short interest has decreased by 0.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 19.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.9% above its 200 day moving average of $92.17. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 7,691 contracts of the $102.00 call expiring on Friday, July 10, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.8% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $1.78 per share on revenue of $1.25 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($1.68) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 28% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 201.14% with revenue decreasing by 43.92%. Short interest has increased by 33.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 108.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 27.4% below its 200 day moving average of $96.86. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,882 contracts of the $70.00 call and 814 contracts of the $80.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.38 per share on revenue of $5.60 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 171.43% with revenue increasing by 4.23%. Short interest has increased by 11.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% below its 200 day moving average of $12.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, June 15, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,617 contracts of the $14.00 call expiring on Friday, June 26, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 21.4% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.41 per share on revenue of $325.94 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.35) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 135.96% with revenue decreasing by 38.38%. Short interest has increased by 12.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 156.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.4% above its 200 day moving average of $46.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 19, 2020 there was some notable buying of 583 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 13.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.3% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.14 per share on revenue of $1.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.18 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 52% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.72% with revenue decreasing by 0.91%. Short interest has decreased by 27.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.4% above its 200 day moving average of $160.35. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.5% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
W&T Offshore Inc. (WTI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:45 PM ET on Monday, June 22, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.03 per share on revenue of $129.93 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 40.00% with revenue increasing by 11.93%. Short interest has increased by 95.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 33.8% below its 200 day moving average of $3.88. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 5.1% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
IHS Markit Ltd. (INFO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 23, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.67 per share on revenue of $1.05 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.63% with revenue decreasing by 7.53%. Short interest has decreased by 27.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 44.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.4% above its 200 day moving average of $69.69. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Accenture Ltd. (ACN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, June 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.84 per share on revenue of $10.94 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.89 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 4.66% with revenue decreasing by 1.44%. Short interest has increased by 20.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.6% above its 200 day moving average of $190.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, June 5, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,740 contracts of the $190.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.8% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Sotherly Hotels Inc. (SOHO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.16 per share on revenue of $16.30 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 26% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 48.39% with revenue decreasing by 65.60%. Short interest has increased by 2,813.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 43.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 39.4% below its 200 day moving average of $4.88. The stock has averaged a 3.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
KB Home (KBH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Wednesday, June 24, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $1.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.49 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.76% with revenue increasing by 14.50%. Short interest has decreased by 2.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 65.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.6% above its 200 day moving average of $31.18. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.2% move in recent quarters.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
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| HIVESWAP: Act 1 x3 | Steam | Available |
| Hollow Knight | Steam | Available |
| Hollow Knight x2 | Steam | Available |
| Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth1 | Steam | Available |
| Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth1 Colosseum + Characters DLC | Steam | Available |
| Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth1 Deluxe Edition Bundle DLC | Steam | Available |
| Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth2 | Steam | Available |
| Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth2 Deluxe Edition Bundle DLC | Steam | Available |
| Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth3 | Steam | Available |
| Hyperdimension Neptunia U: Action Unleashed | Steam | Available |
| Hyperdrive Massacre | Steam | Available |
| I'm not a Monster | Steam | Available |
| Immortal Planet x2 | Steam | Available |
| Immortal Redneck | Steam | Available |
| Impact Winter | Steam | Available |
| In memory of TITAN | Steam | Available |
| Indecision. | Steam | Available |
| Infested Planet - Trickster's Arsenal DLC | Steam | Available |
| Infested Planet | Steam | Available |
| Interplanetary: Enhanced Edition | Steam | Available |
| Inventory Pro | Other | Available |
| INVERSUS Deluxe | Steam | Available |
| Jalopy | Steam | Available |
| Jurassic World Evolution - Ankylosaurus skin (Vivid Variant) | Steam | Available |
| Kabounce | Steam | Available |
| Ken Follett's The Pillars of the Earth | Steam | Available |
| Kind Words x2 | Steam | Available |
| Kingdom: New Lands | Steam | Available |
| Kona | Steam | Available |
| Lakeview Cabin Collection | Steam | Available |
| Laser League | Steam | Available |
| Last Day of June x2 | Steam | Available |
| Last Encounter | Steam | Available |
| Lost Castle | Steam | Available |
| Lost in the Dungeon | Steam | Available |
| LostWinds 2: Winter of the Melodias | Steam | Available |
| LOVE | Steam | Available |
| Love is Dead x2 | Steam | Available |
| Machinarium x2 | Steam | Available |
| Mafia | Steam | Available |
| MagiCat x2 | Steam | Available |
| Marvin's Mittens | Steam | Available |
| Masquerade: The Baubles of Doom x2 | Steam | Available |
| Match Point | Steam | Available |
| Meadow | Steam | Available |
| METAL GEAR SOLID V: GROUND ZEROES | Steam | Available |
| MetaMorph: Dungeon Creatures | Steam | Available |
| Millennium: A New Hope | Steam | Available |
| Mindball Play | Steam | Available |
| Monster Prom | Steam | Available |
| Moon Hunters | Steam | Available |
| MOTHERGUNSHIP | Steam | Available |
| Motorsport Manager | Steam | Available |
| Mr. Shifty x3 | Steam | Available |
| Must Dash Amigos | Steam | Available |
| My Time at Portia | Steam | Available |
| NAIRI: Tower of Shirin x2 | Steam | Available |
| NBA Playgrounds | Steam | Available |
| Nemo Dungeon | Steam | Available |
| NeuroVoider | Steam | Available |
| Neverwinter: Vestments of the Wind Pack | Perfect World | Available |
| Niche x2 | Steam | Available |
| Ninja Senki DX | Steam | Available |
| No Time To Explain Remastered | Steam | Available |
| Nongünz | Steam | Available |
| Octahedron: Transfixed Edition x2 | Steam | Available |
| Offworld Trading Company | Steam | Available |
| Old Man's Journey | Steam | Available |
| Original War | Steam | Available |
| Overgrowth | Steam | Available |
| Override: Mech City Brawl x2 | Steam | Available |
| Oxenfree | Steam | Available |
| Pacify | Steam | Available |
| PAC-MAN™ Championship Edition DX+ | Steam | Available |
| Paper Fire Rookie x2 | Steam | Available |
| Paperbark x2 | Steam | Available |
| Paradigm x3 | Steam | Available |
| Paratopic x2 | Steam | Available |
| Partial Control | Steam | Available |
| Party Hard: High Crimes x2 | Steam | Available |
| Party Hard x 2 | Steam | Available |
| Pathologic Classic HD | Steam | Available |
| Perfect Heist | Steam | Available |
| Pillars of Eternity | Steam | Available |
| Pizza Titan Ultra | Steam | Available |
| Planet Alpha x2 | Steam | Available |
| Pool Panic | Steam | Available |
| Portal Knights x2 | Steam | Available |
| Potatoman Seeks the Troof | Steam | Available |
| Pound of Ground | Steam | Available |
| Primal Carnage: Extinction x2 | Steam | Available |
| Prison Architect - Aficionado (DLC) | Steam | Available |
| Prison Architect | Steam | Available |
| Project CARS | Steam | Available |
| Pumped BMX + | Steam | Available |
| Punch Club x2 | Steam | Available |
| Purrfect Date - Visual Novel/Dating Simulator | Steam | Available |
| Puss! x2 | Steam | Available |
| Q.U.B.E. 2 | Steam | Available |
| Quest of Dungeons x2 | Steam | Available |
| Rapture Rejects - Humble Exclusive "Safari Outfit" DLC | Steam | Available |
| Rapture Rejects x2 | Steam | Available |
| R-COIL | Steam | Available |
| Realistic Effects Pack 4 | other | Available |
| Rebound Dodgeball Evolved | Steam | Available |
| Red Faction Guerrilla Re-Mars-tered | Steam | Available |
| Red Horizon | Steam | Available |
| Red Orchestra 2: Heroes of Stalingrad with Rising Storm | Steam | Available |
| Regions of Ruin | Steam | Available |
| Regular Human Basketball x4 | Steam | Available |
| Rising Dusk x2 | Steam | Available |
| Rising Storm 2: Vietnam + 2 DLCs | Steam | Available |
| Road Doom | Steam | Available |
| Road Redemption | Steam | Available |
| Rock of Ages 2: Bigger & Boulder™ | Steam | Available |
| Rogue Rocks | Steam | Available |
| Running with Rifles | Steam | Available |
| Samorost 3 | Steam | Available |
| Samorost 3 x2 | Steam | Available |
| Satellite Reign | Steam | Available |
| Satellite Reign x2 | Steam | Available |
| Scanner Sombre | Steam | Available |
| Seasons After Fall | Steam | Available |
| Serial Cleaner | Steam | Available |
| SEUM: Speedrunners from Hell x2 | Steam | Available |
| Seven: The Days Long Gone | Steam | Available |
| She Remembered Caterpillars | Steam | Available |
| Shenmue I & II | Steam | Available |
| Shiness: The Lightning Kingdom | Steam | Available |
| Shovel Knight: Treasure Trove | Steam | Available |
| SkyScrappers | Steam | Available |
| Slime-san | Steam | Available |
| Slipstream | Steam | Available |
| Snake Pass | Steam | Available |
| Sniper Elite | Steam | Available |
| Sniper Elite 3 | Steam | Available |
| Sniper Elite V2 | Steam | Available |
| Songs of Skydale | Steam | Available |
| Sonic 3 & Knuckles | Steam | Available |
| Sonic Adventure 2 | Steam | Available |
| SONIC ADVENTURE 2: BATTLE | Steam | Available |
| Sonic Adventure DX | Steam | Available |
| Sonic and SEGA All Stars Racing x2 | Steam | Available |
| Sonic CD | Steam | Available |
| Sonic Forces | Steam | Available |
| Sonic Generations Collection | Steam | Available |
| Sonic Lost World | Steam | Available |
| Sonic Mania x2 | Steam | Available |
| Sonic Mania Encore DLC | Steam | Available |
| Sonic the Hedgehog 4 - Episode I x2 | Steam | Available |
| Sonic the Hedgehog 4 - Episode II x2 | Steam | Available |
| Sorcery! Part 3 | Steam | Available |
| Space Pilgrim Episode 1: Alpha Centauri | Steam | Available |
| SpeedRunners | Steam | Available |
| SPLASH BLAST PANIC | Steam | Available |
| Splasher | Steam | Available |
| Splotches | Steam | Available |
| Squidlit | Steam | Available |
| Star Trek Online: Federation Elite Starter Pack | Perfect World | Available |
| Stardew Valley x2 | Steam | Available |
| State of Mind x2 | Steam | Available |
| Stealth Inc 2: A Game of Clones | Steam | Available |
| Steel Rats | Steam | Available |
| Stikbold! A Dodgeball Adventure | Steam | Available |
| Stories: The Path of Destinies | Steam | Available |
| Styx: Shards of Darkness | Steam | Available |
| Subterrain | Steam | Available |
| Sudden Strike 4 | Steam | Available |
| Sundered | Steam | Available |
| Super Animal Royale | Steam | Available |
| Super Chicken Catchers | Steam | Available |
| Super Daryl Deluxe | Steam | Available |
| Super Rude Bear Resurrection | Steam | Available |
| Super Steampunk Pinball 2D | Steam | Available |
| Sure Footing | Steam | Available |
| Surviving Mars: Digital Deluxe Edition | Steam | Available |
| Surviving Mars: Green Planet | Steam | Available |
| Surviving Mars: Project Laika | Steam | Available |
| Surviving Mars: Space Race | Steam | Available |
| Switchblade Epic Pack DLC | Steam | Available |
| Switchblade Starter Pack | Steam | Available |
| Sword Legacy Omen | Steam | Available |
| Sword Legacy Omen | Steam | Available |
| Swords and Soldiers 2 Shawarmageddon x2 | Steam | Available |
| SYNTHETIK: Legion Rising x2 | Steam | Available |
| Take On Helicopters | Steam | Available |
| Take on Mars | Steam | Available |
| Tangledeep | Steam | Available |
| Tangledeep Soundtrack | Steam | Available |
| Temple of Xiala | Steam | Available |
| The Adventure Pals x3 | Steam | Available |
| The Dwarves | Steam | Available |
| The Final Station x2 | Steam | Available |
| The First Tree | Steam | Available |
| The Gardens Between x2 | Steam | Available |
| The Greater Good | Steam | Available |
| The Haunting of Billy | Steam | Available |
| The Journey Down: Chapter Three | Steam | Available |
| The Little Acre | Steam | Available |
| The Norwood Suite | Steam | Available |
| The Shrouded Isle | Steam | Available |
| The Spiral Scouts x2 | Steam | Available |
| The Stillness of the Wind x2 | Steam | Available |
| THE TEAR | Steam | Available |
| The Town of Light x2 | Steam | Available |
| The Turing Test | Steam | Available |
| The Window Box | Steam | Available |
| Think of the Children x3 | Steam | Available |
| This War of Mine | Steam | Available |
| Throne of Lies® The Online Game of Deceit x2 | Steam | Available |
| Tiny Echo | Steam | Available |
| Tom Clancy's The Division™ - Survival | Uplay | Available |
| Tooth and Tail | Steam | Available |
| Totally Accurate Battlegrounds | Steam | Available |
| Tower of Guns x2 | Steam | Available |
| Treadnauts | Steam | Available |
| Tricky Towers x2 | Steam | Available |
| Tross | Steam | Available |
| Two Point Hospital DLC | Steam | Available |
| Tyranny - Standard Edition | Steam | Available |
| UFPS: Ultimate FPS | Other | Available |
| Ultimate Chicken Horse x2 | Steam | Available |
| Ultimate Game Music Collection | Other | Available |
| uMMORPG | Other | Available |
| Universal Sound FX | Other | Available |
| Vampire®: The Masquerade - Bloodlines™ | Steam | Available |
| Void Bastards x2 | Steam | Available |
| VoidExpanse | Steam | Available |
| War for the Overworld | Steam | Available |
| Warhammer: End Times - Vermintide | Steam | Available |
| Westerado: Double Barreled | Steam | Available |
| When Ski Lifts Go Wrong x2 | Steam | Available |
| Wizorb | Steam | Available |
| Wuppo | Steam | Available |
| Yakuza Kiwami | Steam | Available |
| Yooka-Laylee | Steam | Available |
| YORG.io | Steam | Available |
| Zero G Arena | Steam | Available |
| Zombie Night Terror | Steam | Available |
| Game | Platform | Available |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Second Ninja X | Steam | Available |
| 12 is Better Than 6 | Steam | Available |
| A Normal Lost Phone | Steam | Available |
| Abducted | Steam | Available |
| Acorn Assault: Rodent Revolution | Steam | Available |
| Adr1ft | Steam | Available |
| Airport Madness Time Machine | Steam | Available |
| Airscape The Fall of Gravity | Steam | Available |
| Alien Spidy | Steam | Available |
| ALLTYNEX Second | Steam | Available |
| Alter Army x2 | Steam | Available |
| Analogue: A Hate Story | Steam | Available |
| Angry Video Game Nerd II: ASSimilation x2 | Steam | Available |
| Aporia: Beyond The Valley | Steam | Available |
| Ara Fell | Steam | Available |
| Arkshot x2 | Steam | Available |
| Ashes of the Singularity Escalation x2 | Steam | Available |
| Astebreed: Definitive Edition | Steam | Available |
| Asterix & Obelix XXL 2 | Steam | Available |
| Asura: Vengeance Expansion | Steam | Available |
| Attack of the Earthlings | Steam | Available |
| Auto Age: Standoff | Steam | Available |
| Badminton Warrior | Steam | Available |
| Batman Arkham Origins | Steam | Available |
| Beat Cop | Steam | Available |
| BioShock Infinite | Steam | Available |
| Blood Bowl: Chaos Edition | Steam | Available |
| Bomber Crew | Steam | Available |
| Book Of Demons | Steam | Available |
| Boom Box Blue | Steam | Available |
| Brothers - A Tale of Two Sons | Steam | Available |
| Bunker Punks x2 | Steam | Available |
| Californium x2 | Steam | Available |
| Call of Duty 4 Modern Warfare | Steam | Available |
| Call of Juarez: Bound in Blood | Steam | Available |
| Call of Juarez: Gunslinger | Steam | Available |
| Callys Caves 3 | Steam | Available |
| Carmageddon: Max Damage | Steam | Available |
| Caravan | Steam | Available |
| Castaway Paradise - Town Building Sim x2 | Steam | Available |
| Castelvania Lord of Shadows | Steam | Available |
| Castelvania Lord of Shadows 2 | Steam | Available |
| Catlateral Damage x2 | Steam | Available |
| Caveblazers x2 | Steam | Available |
| Chaos Reborn x2 | Steam | Available |
| Charlie II | Steam | Available |
| Chroma Squad | Steam | Available |
| Circle Empires | Steam | Available |
| Codex of Victory | Steam | Available |
| Coffin Dodgers x4 | Steam | Available |
| Construct Escape the System | Steam | Available |
| Cookies vs Claus | Steam | Available |
| Cortex Command | Steam | Available |
| Cosmic Star Heroine | Steam | Available |
| CryoFall | Steam | Available |
| Curse: The Eye of Isis | Steam | Available |
| Dark Angels Masquerade of Shadows x2 | Steam | Available |
| Dead Age | Steam | Available |
| Deployment | Steam | Available |
| Detention | Steam | Available |
| Devil Daggers x2 | Steam | Available |
| Dex | Steam | Available |
| DinoSystem | Steam | Available |
| Distrust | Steam | Available |
| Dog Sled Saga x2 | Steam | Available |
| Dollar dash | Steam | Available |
| DOOM 3 BFG Edition | Steam | Available |
| Dots eXtreme x2 | Steam | Available |
| Downfall | Steam | Available |
| DreamBreak x2 | Steam | Available |
| Dungeon Souls | Steam | Available |
| Dwarflings | Steam | Available |
| Enforcer: Police Crime Action | Steam | Available |
| Epistory - Typing Chronicles | Steam | Available |
| Equilinox | Steam | Available |
| Extinction | Steam | Available |
| Fahrenheit: Indigo Prophecy Remastered | Steam | Available |
| Fairy Fencer F | Steam | Available |
| Fairy Fencer F ADF Deluxe Pack | Steam | Available |
| Fairy Fencer F ADF Fairy Set 1: Ahab and Leela | Steam | Available |
| Fairy Fencer F ADF Fairy Set 2: Aques and Drulger | Steam | Available |
| Fairy Fencer F ADF Fairy Set 3: Lars and Foxer | Steam | Available |
| Fairy Fencer F ADF Ultimate Fencer Accessory Set | Steam | Available |
| Fairy Fencer F ADF Ultimate Fencer Armor Set | Steam | Available |
| Fairy Fencer F ADF Veteran Fencer Accessory Set | Steam | Available |
| Fairy Fencer F ADF Veteran Fencer Armor Set | Steam | Available |
| Fairy Fencer F Advent Dark Force | Steam | Available |
| Fall of Light: Darkest Edition | Steam | Available |
| Fantasy Versus | Steam | Available |
| Farabel | Steam | Available |
| Farm Together | Steam | Available |
| FEAR 3 | Steam | Available |
| Figment x2 | Steam | Available |
| Five Champions of Canaan | Steam | Available |
| Flashing Lights - Police Fire EMS | Steam | Available |
| For The King | Steam | Available |
| Forward to the Sky | Steam | Available |
| Forward to the Sky x2 | Steam | Available |
| Four Sided Fantasy | Steam | Available |
| From the Depths | Steam | Available |
| Funk of Titans x2 | Steam | Available |
| G Prime | Steam | Available |
| Gas Guzzlers Extreme | Steam | Available |
| Geometry Wars 3 Dimensions Evolved x2 | Steam | Available |
| GIBZ | Steam | Available |
| Gift of Parthax | Steam | Available |
| Gloom x4 | Steam | Available |
| Gravity Wars | Steam | Available |
| Guards | Steam | Available |
| Guards of the Gate | Steam | Available |
| Guilty Gear X2 #Reload | Steam | Available |
| GUILTY GEAR Xrd -SIGN- | Steam | Available |
| Gunman Tales | Steam | Available |
| Haimrik | Steam | Available |
| Hamsterdam | Steam | Available |
| Hazardous Space | Steam | Available |
| Heavy Burger | Steam | Available |
| Hegemony Rome The Rise of Caesar | Steam | Available |
| Heliborne | Steam | Available |
| Hero of the Kingdom III x2 | Steam | Available |
| Heroes of the Monkey Tavern | Steam | Available |
| Hive Jump x2 | Steam | Available |
| HIVESWAP Act 1 | Steam | Available |
| Homebrew - Patent Unknown x2 | Steam | Available |
| HoPiKo x2 | Steam | Available |
| Hotel Dracula | Steam | Available |
| Hover | Steam | Available |
| Hungry Flame | Steam | Available |
| Huntsman: The Orphanage | Steam | Available |
| I am not a Monster | Steam | Available |
| ICY: Frostbite Edition | Steam | Available |
| Immortal Redneck x2 | Steam | Available |
| In Fear I Trust 1-4 | Steam | Available |
| Infinifactory | Steam | Available |
| Infinite Air with Mark McMorris x2 | Steam | Available |
| InnerSpace x2 | Steam | Available |
| Invisigun Heroes | Steam | Available |
| Iron Fisticle | Steam | Available |
| Jalopy | Steam | Available |
| Jet Set Knights | Steam | Available |
| Joggernaughts | Steam | Available |
| Kick Ass Commandos | Steam | Available |
| Lara Croft And The Guardian Of Light | Steam | Available |
| Layers of Fear x4 | Steam | Available |
| Learn Japanese to survive Hiragana Battle x2 | Steam | Available |
| LEGO Batman 3 Beyond Gotham x2 | Steam | Available |
| LEGO Marvel Super Heroes x3 | Steam | Available |
| LEGRAND LEGACY: Tale of the Fatebounds | Steam | Available |
| Letter Quest Grimms Journey Remastered | Steam | Available |
| Life is Strange Complete Season (Episodes 1-5) | Steam | Available |
| Lifeless Planet Premier Edition | Steam | Available |
| Livelock | Steam | Available |
| Loot Hero DX | Steam | Available |
| Luxor Evolved | Steam | Available |
| Mafia | Steam | Available |
| Mainlining | Steam | Available |
| Mars: War Logs | Steam | Available |
| Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite - Deluxe Edition | Steam | Available |
| Megadimension Neptunia VII+ Digital Deluxe Set DLC | Steam | Available |
| Memoria | Steam | Available |
| Metal Gear Solid: The Phantom Pain(gift ) | Steam | Available |
| METAL SLUG 2 | Steam | Available |
| METAL SLUG 3 | Steam | Available |
| Middle Earth Shadow of Mordor | Steam | Available |
| Mimpi | Steam | Available |
| Monochroma | Steam | Available |
| Monstrum | Steam | Available |
| Moon Hunters | Steam | Available |
| Moon Tycoon | Steam | Available |
| Morphies Law: Remorphed | Steam | Available |
| Morphite | Steam | Available |
| Mortal Kombat Komplete Edition | Steam | Available |
| Moto Racer 4 | Steam | Available |
| Mount & Blade | Steam | Available |
| Mount & Blade: With Fire & Sword | Steam | Available |
| Mr. Shifty | Steam | Available |
| My Memory of Us | Steam | Available |
| Mystery of Unicorn Castle The Beastmaster | Steam | Available |
| Narcosis | Steam | Available |
| Neon Prism | Steam | Available |
| Never Alone Arctic Collection | Steam | Available |
| Next Hero | Steam | Available |
| Next Up Hero x7 | Steam | Available |
| Nexus The Jupiter Incident | Steam | Available |
| No Time To Explain Remastered | Steam | Available |
| observer | Steam | Available |
| Odyssey - The Story of Science | Steam | Available |
| Old Man's Journey | Steam | Available |
| Onikira Demon Killer x2 | Steam | Available |
| OPERATION FLASHPOINT RED RIVER | Steam | Available |
| Orborun x3 | Steam | Available |
| Oriental Empires x2 | Steam | Available |
| Quake IV | Steam | Available |
| Quantum Replica | Steam | Available |
| Out of Reach | Steam | Available |
| OVERLORD | Steam | Available |
| Override: Mech City Brawl - Super Charged Mega Edition | Steam | Available |
| Overture | Steam | Available |
| Paranautical Activity Deluxe Atonement Edition | Steam | Available |
| Peregrin | Steam | Available |
| PewDiePie: Legend of the Brofist | Steam | Available |
| Phantom Trigger | Steam | Available |
| Pharaonic | Steam | Available |
| Phoenix Wright Ace Attorney Trilogy | Steam | Available |
| PixelJunk Shooter Ultimate | Steam | Available |
| Pony Island x2 | Steam | Available |
| Port Royale 3 Gold | Steam | Available |
| POSTAL | Steam | Available |
| Project Highrise | Steam | Available |
| Project Remedium | Steam | Available |
| Project Warlock | Steam | Available |
| Rain World | Steam | Available |
| Record of Agarest War Mariage | Steam | Available |
| Redout: Enhanced Edition | Steam | Available |
| Renoir | Steam | Available |
| Renowned Explorers: International Society x2 | Steam | Available |
| Republique | Steam | Available |
| Resort Boss: Golf | Steam | Available |
| Reverse Crawl x2 | Steam | Available |
| Revhead | Steam | Available |
| RiME | Steam | Available |
| Rise of Insanity x3 | Steam | Available |
| River City Ransom: Underground | Steam | Available |
| Rush for Glory | Steam | Available |
| Rym 9000 | Steam | Available |
| S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Clear Sky | Steam | Available |
| Sanitarium | Steam | Available |
| Savage Lands | Steam | Available |
| Scrap Garden x2 | Steam | Available |
| Seraph | Steam | Available |
| SEUM: Speedrunners from | Steam | Available |
| Shadow of the Tomb Raider Definitive Edition | Steam | Available |
| Shadows: Awakening | Steam | Available |
| Shadwen x2 | Steam | Available |
| Shiny | Steam | Available |
| SHOCK TROOPERS x2 | Steam | Available |
| Shovel Knight: Treasure Cove | Steam | Available |
| Sid Meiers Civilization V x2 | Steam | Available |
| Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ | Steam | Available |
| SimCity4 Deluxe Editon x3 | Steam | Available |
| Sir, You Are Being Hunted | Steam | Available |
| Siralim 3 | Steam | Available |
| Skullgirls x3 | Steam | Available |
| Sky Break | Steam | Available |
| SkyDrift | Steam | Available |
| Slain Back from Hell x3 | Steam | Available |
| Slash It | Steam | Available |
| Slash It 2 | Steam | Available |
| Smoke and Sacrifice x2 | Steam | Available |
| Snow White Solitaire Charmed Kingdom | Steam | Available |
| Songbringer x2 | Steam | Available |
| Soulblight | Steam | Available |
| SPACECOM | Steam | Available |
| Spoiler Alert x2 | Steam | Available |
| Stable Orbit | Steam | Available |
| StarDrive 2 | Steam | Available |
| STAR WARS Jedi Knight II Jedi Outcast | Steam | Available |
| STAR WARS Knights of the Old Republic II The Sith Lords | Steam | Available |
| STAR WARS Knights of the Old Republic x4 | Steam | Available |
| STAR WARS The Force Unleashed Ultimate Sith Edition | Steam | Available |
| Starpoint Gemini Warlords | Steam | Available |
| Stealth Inc 2 x2 | Steam | Available |
| Stikbold! A Dodgeball Adventure | Steam | Available |
| Street Racing Syndicate | Steam | Available |
| Styx Shards of Darkness | Steam | Available |
| Styx: Master of Shadows | Steam | Available |
| Subterrain | Steam | Available |
| Super Cloudbuilt x3 | Steam | Available |
| Super Inefficient Golf | Steam | Available |
| Super Life of Pixel | Steam | Available |
| Supreme Ruler The Great War | Steam | Available |
| Survive in Space | Steam | Available |
| Sword Legacy Omen | Steam | Available |
| Syberia 3+ DLC | Steam | Available |
| Symmetry | Steam | Available |
| Tales from Candlekeep: Tomb of Annihilation x3 | Steam | Available |
| TASTEE Lethal Tactics | Steam | Available |
| Tesla vs Lovecraft | Steam | Available |
| The Adventures of Fei Duanmu 端木斐异闻录 | Steam | Available |
| The Age of Decadence x2 | Steam | Available |
| The Black Death | Steam | Available |
| The Cat Lady x2 | Steam | Available |
| The Coma Recut x2 | Steam | Available |
| The Crown of Leaves | Steam | Available |
| The Deed: Dynasty | Steam | Available |
| The Evil Within 2 | Steam | Available |
| The Final Station | Steam | Available |
| The Flame in the Flood | Steam | Available |
| The Hex x2 | Steam | Available |
| The Invisible Hours | Steam | Available |
| THE KING OF FIGHTERS 2002 UNLIMITED MATCH | Steam | Available |
| THE LAST BLADE x2 | Steam | Available |
| The Last Federation | Steam | Available |
| The Last Leviathan x3 | Steam | Available |
| The Little Acre | Steam | Available |
| The Light Keep Us Safe | Steam | Available |
| The Lion's Song: Season Pass | Steam | Available |
| The Low Road x2 | Steam | Available |
| The Metronomicon | Steam | Available |
| The Painscreek Killings | Steam | Available |
| The Spatials | Steam | Available |
| The Swindle | Steam | Available |
| The Town of Light x4 | Steam | Available |
| The Uncertain - The Last Quiet Day | Steam | Available |
| The Walking Vegetables | Steam | Available |
| The Watchmaker x2 | Steam | Available |
| Thief: Deadly Shadows | Steam | Available |
| Through the Woods | Steam | Available |
| Toki x2 | Steam | Available |
| Tower 57 | Steam | Available |
| Tracks - The Train Set Game x2 | Steam | Available |
| Train Valley | Steam | Available |
| Tropico 3 Gold Edition | Steam | Available |
| Tropico 4 Steam Special Edition x2 | Steam | Available |
| Tropico Trilogy | Steam | Available |
| Trulon: The Shadow Engine | Steam | Available |
| Turmoil x2 | Steam | Available |
| TWINKLE STAR SPRITES x3 | Steam | Available |
| ULTIMATE MARVEL VS. CAPCOM 3 | Steam | Available |
| Unbox Newbies Adventure | Steam | Available |
| Unbox: Newbie's Adventure | Steam | Available |
| Unexplored | Steam | Available |
| UNLOVED | Steam | Available |
| Valhalla Hills | Steam | Available |
| Valnir Rok Survival RPG | Steam | Available |
| Vanguard Princess with all DLCs | Steam | Available |
| Vertical Drop Heroes HD x2 | Steam | Available |
| Void Invaders | Steam | Available |
| War Tech Fighters | Steam | Available |
| Warhammer: End Times - Vermintide | Steam | Available |
| We Are The Dwarves | Steam | Available |
| White Night | Steam | Available |
| White Noise 2 | Steam | Available |
| Whos Your Daddy x2 | Steam | Available |
| Wick x2 | Steam | Available |
| Winged Sakura: Mindy's Arc | Steam | Available |
| Wings of Vi | Steam | Available |
| Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus | Steam | Available |
| Wooden Floor 2 Resurrection | Steam | Available |
| World's Dawn | Steam | Available |
| Yesterday Origins | Steam | Available |
| Yet Another Zombie Defense HD | Steam | Available |
| Zenith | Steam | Available |
| Ziggurat | Steam | Available |
| Zombie Kill of the Week Reborn x2 | Steam | Available |
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